Kevin Smith explained on his podcast why it's so unlikely for Black Widow or any upcoming Marvel Cinematic Universe movie to release directly on Disney+. Phase 4 of the MCU has undergone a slight reshuffle lately, with Marvel Studios and its parent company, Disney, re-accessing their 2020 release schedules. These decisions have come about due to most movie theaters needing to close as countries combat the COVID-19 outbreak.
In light of the unprecedented halt to traditional theatrical releases, some studios have begun making their newest movies available through video-on-demand or streaming services. Trolls World Tour, for instance, was originally set to release in theaters on April 10th, and while it did release in a very select few, it was also made available to rent through VOD services the very same day. This is different to recent releases like The Invisible Man or Emma. becoming available to rent early because Trolls World Tour became available digitally (for an inflated price, of course) the same date as its theatrical release, not a few weeks after. Another similar though slightly different example of this will be Artemis Fowl 's premiere on Disney+. Originally slated to release in theaters this May, the film adaption of Eoin Colfer's novels will now release exclusively on Disney's streaming platform. This announcement has since had some MCU fans hopeful Marvel might consider something similar for a movie like Black Widow, which has had its May release pushed to November 6th.
However, as Kevin Smith explained on a recent episode FatMan Beyond LIVE! podcast, it doesn't make good financial sense for Marvel to release Black Widow or any other MCU movie directly on to Disney+.
I think [releasing Artemis Fowl straight to streaming] is a smart play. I don't think you'll ever see that happen with a Marvel movie. I don't think they're gonna play their big money cards. Think of it as somebody sitting there playing Uno. They just laid down a skip card to buy themselves some time. Artemis Fowl, they're like, 'Skip. You can watch that on Disney+.' They're not gonna stick a Marvel movie on Disney+ because they've got some Marvel TV shows coming, and they gotta keep them Marvel movies valuable. Because those movies make f-cking money, man, legit f-cking money.
The point Smith is making is sound, the MCU movies make a ridiculous amount of money for Marvel Studios. Avengers: Endgame, the highest grossing MCU movie, made over $2.7 billion at the worldwide box office, and even their more middle-tier releases, like 2015's Ant-Man, brought in over $500 million. Disney is just fine with waiting to release these movies if it means a chance at making a billion dollars. Plus, as Smith also rightly points out, there is new MCU content already coming to Disney+. The Falcon and the Winter Soldier, for example, is still on track to release in August 2020, and not long after, comes WandaVision in December. Assuming Black Widow is able to keep its November 2020 release date, it looks to be a very busy and profitable season for Marvel.
Artemis Fowl is a very different movie from Black Widow or any upcoming MCU movie. Artemis Fowl was never going to pull in anywhere near the amount of money MCU movies do at the box office. The familiarity among general movie-goers isn't there, and the most recent trailer for Artemis Fowl - which revealed some big changes from the source material - has a lot of fans of the books already upset with the adaptation. In fact, choosing to release Artemis Fowl on Disney+ may save the film from becoming a flop, similarly to how releasing Pixar's Onward on Disney+ so quickly after its theatrical release has softened the blow of its disappointing box office.
Source: FatMan Beyond LIVE!
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