The success or failure of Aquaman is going to define the DCEU going forward. The shared universe built around DC comics has had a rocky road thus far, with the reaction to Zack Snyder's initial Superman saga mixed-at-best and his Justice League subsequently bastardized by movie-ruining reshoots and re-edits. Just over a year after that movie bombed at the box office, James Wan's film is hoping to signal new era.
So far, things are looking promising for Aquaman. It made over $100 million on opening weekend in China and its domestic predictions are rising faster than an Arthur Curry-powered submarine, while reviews are skewing positive in a way the DCEU hasn't seen aside from Wonder Woman. In many ways, James Wan delivering his unimpeded vision is a victory in and of itself. However, the real test comes when it hits US screens. How will audiences - from casual cinemagoers to die-hard DC fans - react to Aquaman, and where will its final box office totals land?
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Of course, the short-term future of DC Films after Aquaman is set - Shazam! and Joker in 2019, Birds of Prey and Wonder Woman 1984 in 2020 - and evidently already sees some pivot away from the Justice League past. But how those movies build on what came before and what the so-called DC Extended Universe even is hinges on Aquaman. Here's what happens either way.
- This Page: What Happens If Aquaman Fails
- Page 2: What Happens If Aquaman Is A Success
Worst Case Scenario: Aquaman Bombs, DC Films Continues To Reboot
First, let's look at the negative outcome: Aquaman struggles at the box office or the critical reaction slides to become more mixed and in-line with the likes of Man of Steel. That would be a major knock for Warner Bros., suggesting that the rot of Justice League has impacted the brand as it stands.
If things end up really that bad and there's little audience connection to Arthur Curry, then we could end up seeing a semi-reboot of the entire DCEU that discards almost everything from the Snyder-era. The only aspect of the DCEU as he defined that's really won audiences over is Gal Gadot's Wonder Woman, thanks to Patty Jenkins 2017 smash-hit, and so Warner Bros. may way to reset everything else bar Diana Prince and essentially start from scratch.
We're already getting this pivot in some form: Shazam! may idolize the heroes of the Justice League, but its tone is a stark departure; Joker is set in a totally different universe; Birds of Prey is the Harley Quinn spinoff devoid of other Suicide Squad ephemera; and, most importantly, Wonder Woman 1984's period setting keeps links to Batman v Superman and Justice League to a minimum. Beyond that, Matt Reeves' The Batman will likely cast a new, younger Bruce Wayne, Superman is on ice possibly in favor of a Supergirl movie, and Flash's film is still locked in its long development. Aquaman struggling would see one last connection to Snyder's vision removed, no doubt leading to even further distance.
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If Aquaman Underperforms, Expect A Less-Connected DC Shared Universe
Of course, the Chinese box office and reviews certainly make something so drastic now seem rather unlikely: right now, at worst Aquaman will have mixed reviews and mid-range box office. With that in mind, the risk is more about Aquaman not taking DC to new heights: it not matching Wonder Woman is hardly a disappointment, but is still a negative trend; substantially less would indicate that the DCEU has really failed at launching a shared universe.
Already, we're seeing that DC movies are becoming less interconnected, with each project appearing to exist more standalone; not just Joker's Elseworlds label, but in making each release unconcerned with the wide whole. An Aquaman underperformance would embolden this choice, leading to a more randomized set of DC films chosen for immediacy rather than some MCU-style narrative. That's hardly bad, but it does limit some of the storytelling potential.
Page 2: What Happens If Aquaman Is A Success
If Aquaman's A Hit, Justice League 2 Seems More Likely
If Aquaman is a big hit, however, then it could reframe how the future of the Snyderverse is viewed. Box office success would mean one-third of the Justice League are proven, popular draws. With Flash another strong contender, that turns around views of the team; it was less about Justice League as a brand or this set of characters and actors, but more audience apathy with the Snyder-specific stylings. There's a lot of potential fallout from this.
Chiefly, it makes Justice League 2 more likely. As it stands, the JLA's movie future is in stasis; nobody would front $200 million for the sequel to a torturous bomb, after all. But if there's a string of successful standalones featuring well-liked characters, bringing them back together akin to The Avengers makes a lot more sense. This is what a lot of DCEU critics have been saying WB should have been doing all along, and while copying Marvel isn't a short-cut to success, the logic of the slow-build interest model is obvious.
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That said, whatever a sequel ends up looking like, don't expect it to line up with Snyder's vision at all. Indeed, Aquaman would also endorse the currently rumored direction DC is taking with Justice League 2. The film may be light on any real connections to Justice League (Steppenwolf only gets a namedrop), but it does actually tie into the reported Legion of Doom plan; following Justice League's post-credits scene teased Lex Luthor recruiting Deathstroke for "a league of our own", Black Manta would be an perfect new addition. The status of this story is uncertain, but an Aquaman win would embolden it.
Affleck's Batman & Cavill's Superman Could Gain New Life From Aquaman
With Justice League comes the World's Finest. At the moment, it looks like Batman and Superman - at the very least the Ben Affleck and Henry Cavill versions - are done in the DCEU; Affleck has been gradually distanced from The Batman since before Justice League dropped, and the latest reports suggest that Warner Bros. isn't interested in renegotiating Cavill's contract. Considering the track record of films they're in, few general audience members will be too upset.
But if the world that birthed them gets a new lease of life, that could change. Jason Momoa is the Arthur Curry to Affleck's Bruce Wayne and Cavill's Clark Kent, after all; subbing in new faces will be a big task (although not insurmountable). And if there is money to be made in returning to the Justice League sooner rather than later, that may lead to Warner Bros. wanting to spend more on the two distanced actors.
It's worth pointing out that so much of the Batman and Superman hold assumes them being the center of the franchise. And while it's true that once upon a time the duo were deemed the only superheroes who could work on the big screen, the success of newer or more obscure characters in recent years - Deadpool, Harley Quinn, Guardians of the Galaxy - shows that no longer holds true. With Aquaman and Wonder Woman offering new leads for the DCEU, it's possible to use Bats and Supes without betting the Kent farm on them.
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DC's Director Freedom Promise Is Proven
Above all, though, Aquaman is finally evidence of a DCEU promise Warner Bros. has never properly delivered on: creative freedom. Director control has been a log-line back to the early Snyder days, yet Batman v Superman, Suicide Squad and Justice League were all influenced and altered heavily by the studio. James Wan reportedly fought for creative control on Aquaman, and that shows; it's a movie 100% the product of its director, a popcorn rollercoaster just like Furious 7 or The Conjuring.
Should Aquaman appeal to audiences on any level close to Patty Jenkins' Wonder Woman, then it goes a long way to sh0wing the studio that this more freeing creative model works. That may sound obvious, but the fight over the direction of the DCEU so far shows that a balance is far from being struck. Now, with the two hits being ones where the director is given a wide-sense of creative freedom, that should define the approach going forward. Matt Reeves is said to have negotiated a similar deal to James Wan for The Batman, and similar is undoubtably true of Todd Phillips with Joker and Cathy Yan with Birds of Prey. Now, there's no recourse for Suicide Squad-level changes.
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Aquaman is a film from a previous administration of DC Films that arrives after the new direction has already been decided on, but that doesn't make the implications of its release any more important. Thankfully, all signs point to it leading to positive creative decisions. The new DCEU is just beginning.
Next: Jason Momoa Won't Let Warner Bros. Distance Aquaman From Zack Snyder
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